World Economic Outlook, May 2000: Asset Prices and the Business Cycle (French Edition)

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The Great Moderation and the New Business Cycle - Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Fama, E. Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies. The Journal of Finance, 51 , 55— Kydland, F. Time to build and aggregate fluctuations.


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Econometrica, 50 , — Business cycles: Real facts and a monetary myth. Liew, J.

Business Cycles Explained: Austrian Theory

Can book-to-market, size and momentum be risk factors that predict economic growth? Journal of Financial Economics, 57, — Lucas, R. Understanding business cycles. Meltzer Eds. New York: North-Holland. Methods and problems in business cycle theory.

63. Business Cycle Forecasts and Futures Volatility

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Wheelock, D. Can the term spread predict output growth a recessions? A survey of the literature.

World Economic Outlook, May 2000 : Asset Prices and the Business Cycle

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 91 5, Part 1 , — Wieland, V. The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U. Working paper, Goethe University. Starting around a structural break occurred that resulted in a period where changes in GDP, consumption and inflation ceased to experience high volatility.

It is thought that these new economies have specific characteristics that generate endogenous financial business cycles. That is, these cycles are not triggered by exogenous supply or demand shocks that throw an economy off of a steady state but instead are an endogenous force within the gears of the system itself that creates imbalances that can build up without any noticeable increase in inflation - the traditional parameter typically used to monitor imbalances. The main characteristic of this new era of Great Moderation is rapidly rising growth coupled with low and stable prices which is highly correlated with an increase in the probability of episodes of financial instability Borio In fact, within these new economies inflation shows up first as excess demand within credit aggregates and asset prices rather than in the traditional goods and services markets.

This means that a financial crisis could occur without inflation ever having occurred within the broader economy. If asset bubbles are left unattended the resulting implosion of the bubbles can create virulent deflationary episodes. And it is the unwinding of the financial imbalances caused by the bubbles that are the source of financial instability. And it is worth noting that minimizing the deflationary impact will not stop the necessary unwinding and required rebalancing.

JEL classification

Again, this paper does not intend to define a model but instead simply lays out the ideas and theories behind this new modeling approach. This paper will first compare the traditional to the new modeling approach by first describing the economic environment that creates the business cycle. Secondly it will compare the two paradigms and explain how each generates different questions and answers in monitoring and explaining economic stability.

Finally, I touch on a few of the unique challenges facing our current crisis within the United States.


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Bakshi, Gurdip S. Bank for International Settlements. Claudio Borio The Financial Turmoil of ? Bernanke, Ben and Mark Gertler.